About a week ago I tweeted a monthly chart showing the UNG – Natural Gas ETF’s reversal candle and its potential for a tradable bottom:

For those of you who can’t see the embedded tweet, click on the UNG chart to enlarge:

UNG UGAZ Natural Gas ETF Bullish Monthly Chart Hammer Reversal Candle Technical Analysis

What prompted me to post that monthly chart is what I would interpret as ‘seller’s exhaustion’. UNG was unwilling to go lower. When that’s the case the only way a stock can go is up. So far the trade has worked. Make no mistake, this is not a ‘strong chart’ type of trade. There is massive overhead resistance. But if UNG’s reluctance to go down is for real, this kind of set-up has the potential to develop into a short squeeze inflicting serious pain on short sellers.

UNG Natural Gas ETF - Price Targets

As you can see, my chart annotation shows the various potential upside targets if my ‘seller’s exhaustion’ thesis proves to be correct. Although UNG could pull back anytime my minimum upside target remains 14.82, the most recent high. A more optimistic target would be the gap area around 15.30. If we are to witness a full blown short squeeze UNG could be on its way to test the declining moving average 200. For very aggressive players UGAZ the 3x leveraged ETF would be a way to play this potential move.

Successful traders tend to be instinctive rather than overly analytical. – Joe Ritchie

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The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF MOO has generated a multi-year technical buy signal on the weekly chart. The daily chart shows a break-away gap on Friday, albeit on low volume. As you can see in my chart annotations a pullback to the breakout level would represent a more or less ideal buy point.

As MOO – Agribusiness ETF is a slow mover I am expecting a pullback. As you can see in the chart the weekly moving average 30 is showing an upward slope. It’s impossible to tell if MOO will simply move higher or pull back first. When in doubt, the best way to handle this type of situation is to buy an initial position and to buy more on a pull back or on further strength.

Click on the weekly MOO chart to enlarge:

MOO Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF Multi Year Technical Buy Signal Bullish Break Away Gap Trend

Conclusion: MOO has roughly 15% upside appreciation potential. The price target area is the all time high area the stock printed 7 years ago. The pattern at hand is a huge base that offers a lot of pattern pressure. If we get decent follow through soon, the trend should accelerate.

To give you an idea what this ETF is all about, right now the 12 biggest US listed MOO holdings in terms of percentage net assets are:

SYT – Syngenta, MON – Monsanto, DE – Deere, ADM – Archer Daniels Midland, POT – Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, ZTS – Zoetis, AGU – Agrium, MOS – Mosaic, CF – CF Industries Holdings, TSN – Tyson Foods, BG – Bunge, TSCO – Tractor Supply

Update 05/12/15:

So far this looks like a normal retest of the breakout area. The true bull move will start once MOO closes above the green line. Somewhere around 57.20 – 57.50 should be the trigger.

Click on the daily MOO chart to enlarge:

MOO Agribusiness Market Vectors ETF Bullish Moving Average Expansion Breakout Retest Bull Move

The one thing that stands out on the daily chart is the beginning stage of moving average expansion. This is very bullish action and signals the potential for a big run.

Agriculture Sector Overview – Chart I.
Agriculture Sector Overview – Chart II.

Update 05/14/15:

MOO Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF Successful Multi-Year Break-Out Level Test Bullish Chart Technical Analaysis

The multi-year break-out level test was successful. Overall the technical chart set-up looks extremely constructive. The increase in volume is very bullish as MOO will now pop up in technical volume scans. This will attract more traders, long-term buyers and investors.

The instant you learn to trade reality, not wishes, you will break through the wall of fire to become a successful trader. – Larry Williams

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Gold remains in a confirmed downtrend. Price action has been bearish for several years now and remains bearish. My job as a trader is to objectively analyze price action. I tune out all the noise and I don’t care about opinions. A year ago I did the following technical review of Gold – GLD ETF:

GLD – Gold ETF Descending Triangle Pattern

Let’s recap the current technical situation:

  • Dominant technical pattern is the double top with the reaction high being a lower high
  • Initial thrusting move to the downside in the 1st half of 2013
  • Bearish descending triangle pattern in the 2nd half of 2013 and 2014
  • Long-term weekly moving average 30 with a bearish downward slope
  • Resumption of the downtrend is about to start i.e. resumption of the trend leading into the consolidation pattern

Click on the weekly GLD chart to enlarge:

Gold GLD - Bearish Price Target

The main takeaways are the following:

  1. In downtrends you either short or you stand aside
  2. Calling tops or bottoms for that matter is a losing proposition

Conclusion: Talking of bottoms, the really important thing to keep in mind here is that there are no signs whatsoever of capitulation type volume. For a bottom to take shape we either need a very long basing pattern or market participants to throw in the towel. From a psychological perspective keep in mind the 100 US Dollar level is extremely important.

As you know, round numbers act as strong magnets attracting price. It is highly unlikely gold will touch and bounce exactly at the 100,00 level. Support is best thought of as a price area. Therefore odds are very high price will undercut that widely followed level in order to trigger panic selling. That is when we should see volume surge. As long as there is no washout and the downtrend continues to produce falling tops there is no reason to turn bullish.

Tyler Bollhorn - Trading Quote

The best traders are not afraid of holding on to strong stocks, they are afraid of holding on to losing stocks. – Tyler Bollhorn

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The stock I labeled as my Favourite Aggressive Small Cap Play when it was trading @ 3.30, went on to confirm its W – Bottom pattern and today generated a long-term buy signal on the monthly chart confirming the strong new uptrend. MIFI – Novatel Wireless is now flashing an all green signal on multiple timeframes.

Along the way I kept publishing chart updates for MIFI on Twitter showing why it is a high potential stock.

Here’s the chart if you are not reading this on my website:

MIFI Novatel Wireless Chart Technical Analysis Uptrend Resuming Bullish Stock

Here’s the chart if you are not reading this on my website:

MIFI Novatel Wireless - All Stars Aligned

As mentioned at the beginning of the post, today an important long-term buy signal was generated. All that is needed now is for volume to surpass the black line I drew into the chart. That would be further indication we have a huge winner in the making. We are not there yet. But the technical picture couldn’t possibly look better at this point in time.

Click on the Monthly MIFI Chart Analysis to enlarge:

MIFI Novatel Wireless - Potential Super WInner

Conclusion: My favourite quote from Justin Mamis best describes the current situation:

Justin Mamis - Trading Quote - Crowd

Justin Mamis – When To Sell
Justin Mamis – Trading Wisdom

The crowd is bargain hunting in what was; the knowing are buying what will be. – Justin Mamis

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Tonight’s stock is a great looking chart that is well suited for trend following traders. The solar stocks as a group are starting to gain some serious traction. That is precisely when you want to take a closer look at the sector. My job as a trader is to seek exposure to the strongest stocks I can find.

The first step is to identify a strong sector like solar. The next step is to look for stocks either trading at an all time high or making new 52 week highs. The goal is to eliminate candidates that might run into trouble due to Overhead Resistance.

SUNE – Sunedison has already taken out immediate overhead resistance and offers almost clear sky potential. Overhead resistance dating back several years typically has much less of an impact on a stock’s future price performance. That said, SUNE is displaying huge pattern pressure and is now starting to develop momentum. Overall the technical picture is very constructive and SUNE is offering one of the most bullish chart set-ups within the solar industry.

Click on the SUNE – Sunedison chart to enlarge:

SUNE Sunedison - Great Solar Stock For Trendfollowers

The weekly SUNE chart has been trending higher for almost 2 years, the initial thrusting move. Then it consolidated for almost 1 year. Now SUNE has broken out again, printed a new 52 week high and from a purely technical perspective the price target area is the 40 – 50 $ price range drawn into the chart. As you can see I am using past pivot points as the starting point to draw the horizontal trendlines defining the target range channel.

Conclusion: SUNE – Sunedison offers great potential for traders with a trendfollowing mind-set. Ideally the stock should steadily climb higher mimicking the ascent of its initial thrusting move.

Further reading: Ed Seykota Trend Following Wisdom

My style is basically trend following, with some special pattern recognition and money management algorithms. – Ed Seykota

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IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF – Very Bullish Moving Average Expansion

April 16, 2015

The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ETF IWM is about to run higher. As usual my opinions are not important. I trade the charts. And the chart of IWM – Russell 2000 ETF is extremely bullish right now. Here is why: IWM closed at a new all time high We have an ABC pattern playing […]

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NOAH Holdings China Asset Management Stock – 2 Bullish Chart Scenarios

April 14, 2015

A stock I recently highlighted on Twitter has turned into a huge winner. Here is my original tweet on NOAH – Noah Holdings an asset management service company for wealthy clients: $NOAH Bullish chart with moving average expansion + cup with handle pattern pressure. $FXI $CAF $ASHR pic.twitter.com/GOnjedtSVG — Olivier Tischendorf (@Tischendorf) April 6, 2015 For […]

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MITL Mitel Networks Business Communications Stock with Bullish Chart Pattern Pressure

April 8, 2015

The acquisition of MVNR – Mavenir Systems by MITL – Mitel Networks has the potential to create a new leader for converged IP communications for businesses and mobile operators. This is now the most interesting mid-cap play in the VoLTE and VoWIFI area. I originally bought MVNR – Mavenir Systems but shortly after my entry it […]

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TWTR Twitter – Social Media Stock Starting Bullish Upside Move

March 24, 2015

Twitter is gaining some serious traction as their business model is starting to make more sense with each passing day. Heck, even I am on Twitter now Kidding aside, the name of the game is to wait for the charts to confirm one’s bullish assumptions. The long white candle TWTR – Twitter printed today is […]

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NLNK Newlink Genetics All Time High Biotech Stock – Bullish vs. Bearish Scenario

March 17, 2015

Here’s another constructive looking Biotech stock I recently mentioned on social media. NLNK – Newlink Genetics is trading at an all time high. If you are a regular reader you know that this is a very bullish situation. Buyers are in control. With NLNK I see the potential for the stock to gap up above […]

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