After doing a bullish chart analysis of DXJ the currency hedged Japan ETF I decided to add the Nikkei Index to my public chart list. Here’s a quick 2 minute video explaining the ABC move concept I talk about so often:

An initial thrusting move, followed by a consolidation pattern and the resumption of the trend leading into the pattern. In the video I also show how to derive a technical price target for the Nikkei.

Here’s the Nikkei chart I just added to my public list. Click to enlarge:

Always up-to-date Nikkei 225 chart on my public list.

For those who read my website via RSS or email website updates, click the link above to watch the video. Hope you like it!

Risk takers never complain. They do. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb




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Just wanted to quickly highlight a very constructive weekly chart pattern displaying a high volume thrusting move resembling a high pole and the ensuing flag consolidation. A classic ABC move chart pattern in the making. A resumption of the trend would imply a 19$ target.

A more conservative target around 16$ looks perfectly reasonable. The daily chart of INFN – Infinera shows how tight the flag is. A very bullish sign. Depending on your level of aggressiveness entries can either be taken now or once the bullish flag resolves to the upside.

Click on INFN weekly chart analysis to enlarge:

Click on INFN daily chart analysis to enlarge:

Fiber Optics Sector Overview Chart I. Chart contains: INFN – Infinera, JDSU – JDS Uniphase, CIEN – Ciena, FNSR – Finisar, AAOI – Applied Optoelectronics, CLFD – Clearfield

Fiber Optics Sector Overview Chart II. Chart contains: IPGP – IPFG Photonics, GLW – Corning, AVGO – Avago Technologies, AFOP – Alliance Fiber Optic Products, CALX – Calix, BRCD – Brocade Communications Systems

Company overview from Yahoo finance:

Infinera Corporation provides optical transport networking (OTN) equipment, software, and services to communications service providers, Internet content providers, cable operators, and subsea network operators worldwide. It offers Infinera DTN Platform that utilizes photonic integrated circuit technology to enable digital processing and management of data to generate wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) wavelengths; and to add, drop, switch, manage, protect, and restore network traffic digitally using integrated OTN switching. The company also provides Infinera Line System, which offers optical amplification and enables the management communication channels between network nodes; and Infinera DTN-X Platform, a multi-terabit packet optical transport platform that enables service providers to manage the traffic of video, mobile, and cloud-based services, as well as for submarine network applications. In addition, it offers Infinera ATN Platform, a coarse WDM and dense WDM aggregation and transport solution; Infinera IQ Network Operating System, an embedded software operating system; and Infinera Management Suite, an element management system used to manage DTN, DTN-X, and ATN platforms. Further, the company provides a range of support services for various hardware and software products. It markets and sells its products and related support services primarily through its direct sales force. Infinera Corporation was formerly known as Zepton Networks. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Give up complexity and move toward simplicity. The best traders are always those who practice simplicity. – Van K. Tharp



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RIC Richmont Mines Chart Update With Price Target

by Olivier on November 20, 2014

This gold mining stock is clearly one of the best performers. RIC – Richmont Mines might very well be the Needle In the Golden Haystack. Yesterday, the miners were drowning in a sea of red. RIC was one of the very few that managed to close the day in the green. There is no need to know more. This stock is holding up like a champ. Make no mistake, you couldn’t possibly wish for more bullish behaviour. I expect the stock to build a bullish continuation flag pattern. Then a resumption of the trend leading into the pattern and a move higher towards its technical price target around the 4.00$ area.

Click on RIC chart to enlarge:

I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second. – Paul Tudor Jones



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This stock is setting up nicely for a run higher. It is not ready for prime time yet, but this is a great watch list candidate. One to monitor while the ascending triangle continues to form. I drew the scenario I deem to be the most likely one into the chart. Here are the reasons why I am bullish CENX – Century Aluminum and its peer stock AA – Alcoa:

  • Firmly established up-trend
  • Successful deep pullback testing long-term moving averages. Clearly visible on the weekly chart
  • In the process of building a bullish ascending triangle

Click on CENX chart to enlarge:

Click on CENX weekly chart to enlarge:

Click on Aluminum / Aluminium Sector Overview Chart to enlarge:

Always up-to-date Aluminum Sector Overview Chart

The chart contains the following stocks for easy peer group relative strength comparison: AA – Alcoa, ACH – Aluminum Corporation of China, CENX – Century Aluminum, KALU – Kaiser Aluminum, AWCMY Alumina LTD., NOR – Noranda Aluminum

Company at a Glance from the company’s website:

Century Aluminum is a primary aluminum producer, supplying standard-grade, high-purity and value-added primary aluminum products at a rated production capacity of 1.03 million metric tonnes per year (mtpy). The company has operations in Hawesville, Ky., Sebree, KY., Ravenswood, W.Va., Mt. Holly, S.C. and Grundartangi, Iceland, with headquarters located in Chicago, Il. We are constructing a primary aluminum facility in Helguvik, Iceland with an expected rated capacity of up to 360,000 mtpy. In addition to our primary aluminum assets, we have an approximately 150,000-tonne carbon anode and cathode manufacturing facility located in Vlissingen, the Netherlands and a 40-percent stake in Baise Haohai Carbon Co., Ltd., a carbon anode and cathode manufacturing facility located in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of south China.

Our current long-term strategic objectives are to:

Optimize our existing assets by managing costs and improving safety, productivity and efficiency.
Expand our business by constructing, investing in or acquiring additional capacity.
Pursue upstream opportunities in bauxite mining, alumina refining and the production of other key raw materials.

The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. – Leo Tolstoy



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The beaten down gold mining sector is showing its first signs of life. Odds are we’re witnessing the early stages of an intermediate term bounce. Maybe this is the start of something much more meaningful. Let’s not get carried away though. The downtrend is still firmly in place, so ultimately new lows cannot be ruled out. But right now this very much looks like a tradable bounce.

When stocks rebound from extremely oversold levels and when sentiment cannot possibly get more bearish, the best performers tend to be the most beaten down stocks. Employing this strategy is a high risk endeavor. After all there is a reason why a stock got beaten badly. In fact, the biggest risk is that the one stock you buy might not make it or will experience that dreaded one last gap down that completely destroys shareholders.

Here’s the good news: You have 3 ways to avoid that risk when trading a bounce:

  1. You buy an ETF like GDX or GDXJ, thus avoiding single stock risk.
  2. You buy stocks in firmly established uptrends near or at all time highs.
  3. You buy stocks that have already bottomed out and are establishing new uptrends.

Here’s where RIC – Richmont Mines comes into play. It belongs to the third category described above. The stock has put in a thrusting move on huge volume, then proceeded to build an ascending triangle, a very bullish consolidation pattern. We can see a series of higher lows and relentless accumulation during that consolidation phase. Today RIC put in another huge volume day indicating that the consolidation is now most likely over.

Click on the RIC chart to enlarge:

A few more important bullish factors to consider:

  • The company has no long-term debt
  • RIC is a profitable gold producer
  • It is operating in Canada, a safe jurisdiction
  • The stock bottomed out much earlier than its peers
  • RIC got rid of its CEO after the brutal decline and the new CEO took over today

The combination of an extremely bullish technical set-up and the announcement of a new CEO lead me to believe RIC – Richmont Mines right now, is offering one of the most promising trading opportunities. I bought the stock today.

A successful speculator bases no moves on what will happen, but reacts instead to what does happen. – Max Gunther



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India Bull Market About To Resume – IFN PIN INDA INDL

November 10, 2014

India’s bull market is about to resume any day now. My assumption is based on the technical set-up for IFN – India ETF which looks very constructive. Here is what the chart is displaying: The uptrend started in 2014 with a thrusting move A consolidation pattern ensued A successful retest of the rising MA 30 Bullish ascending [...]

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DXJ Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged ETF – Ascending Triangle Upside Breakout

November 6, 2014

The Nikkei is breaking out to the upside. The obvious problem with investments in Japan is its rapidly depreciating currency. There is no other way to put it: the Yen is getting crushed. So instead of buying ETFs like EWJ or JPNL the better alternative is reducing risk by going long currency hedged ETFs like [...]

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US Dollar $USD $UUP Bullish Uptrend Putting Pressure On Commodities And Precious Metals

October 25, 2014

Your average gold bug has been calling for the US Dollar’s demise for as long as I can think of. Price is telling a different story. We are witnessing a strong new uptrend. As usual you do have a choice here. You can do one of the following: Believe their narrative. Base your trading decisions [...]

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SLV Silver ETF With Falling Tops – Downtrend Chart Analysis With Bearish Price Targets

October 23, 2014

Many are still hoping for a trend reversal in silver. Rest assured, it will come one day. Technically speaking though it is most likely not going to happen anytime soon. The reason is simple. We continue to witness falling tops. The most important characteristic of a downtrend, the most recent red bar I drew into [...]

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How Stop Buy Orders Can Protect You – Educational Chart Review – KGC Kinross Gold

October 17, 2014

This is meant to be a ‘post trade’ analysis. The real educational value here is the fact the ‘trade’ was not taken as the suggested method to enter the trade was a stop buy order. The stop buy order simply never triggered. The advantage of using such a method is pretty obvious. It protects you [...]

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